Petesgiving Weather: Thanksgiving Day Forecast for 2026

Over the last ten Thanksgivings, Atlantic Beach has averaged a high of 71 degrees and a low of 58, with the temperature sitting around 61 degrees at 9 a.m. when Petesgiving gets going. Nine of those ten mornings stayed completely dry through the party window. The warmest was 2024 at 79 degrees, the coldest was 2023 at 61.

So the odds are good. One year in ten, they are not, and everyone still shows up.

Ten Years of Thanksgiving Day Weather in Atlantic Beach

Here's every Thanksgiving Day since 2016, measured at the Atlantic Beach coordinates rather than the airport twenty miles inland. The 9 a.m. column is the one that matters, since that's roughly when people start walking over to First Street.

Temperatures in Fahrenheit, pulled from ERA5 reanalysis data for the Atlantic Beach coordinates.

The Party Window Is the Number Nobody Publishes

Daily highs are a little misleading for Petesgiving, because the high usually lands mid-afternoon, around the time most people have already gone home to eat. What actually matters is the 8 a.m. to 1 p.m. stretch.

Across those ten years, the party window averaged 61 degrees at 9 a.m. and 65 by 11 a.m. That's a four degree climb over two hours, which is why you see people show up in a hoodie and leave carrying it.

Rain during the window is rarer than the daily totals suggest. Four of the ten years recorded measurable rain at some point on Thanksgiving Day, but only one of them, 2017, actually rained on the party. That year dropped 1.33 inches between 8 a.m. and 1 p.m. under complete cloud cover with winds gusting near 18 miles per hour. Everyone got soaked and the tradition survived.

The coldest morning in the set was 2023, when it was 49 degrees at 9 a.m. and only reached 61 all day. If you were there, you remember it.

What a Very Strong El Niño Means for Thanksgiving 2026

This year is different from the ten years above, and it's worth understanding why before you plan your outfit.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect and puts the odds of a very strong event during fall and winter 2026-27 above 90 percent. More striking, the Center gives the October through December window a 69 percent chance of becoming a historic event, one that would exceed every El Niño in the record going back to 1950.

For Florida, El Niño works through the subtropical jet stream. A strong El Niño pushes that jet south and parks it over the southern United States, which means more storm systems tracking across the state, more cloud cover, and more rain through the cool season. Forecasters describe the typical Florida El Niño winter as wetter, cloudier, and often a little cooler than normal.

The cooler part comes with a catch worth knowing. El Niño doesn't make Florida cold by dragging arctic air down. A strong subtropical jet actually tends to push arctic outbreaks further east, which historically reduces the odds of a hard freeze. What suppresses the temperature is cloud cover, keeping daytime highs from climbing the way they would under clear sky. NOAA's seasonal outlook reflects that split, calling for a wet winter across Florida while keeping temperatures near normal.

Our Call for November 26, 2026

Based on the ten-year baseline and the El Niño setup, here's where we land.

• Temperature: near the historical normal. Expect somewhere around 60 degrees at 9 a.m. and a high in the low 70s. Heavy cloud could shave a few degrees off the afternoon.
• Rain: this is the real risk. The baseline says nine out of ten Petesgiving mornings stay dry, but a very strong El Niño tilts those odds wetter than usual. Plan for a gray morning being more likely than it normally would be.
• The bigger point: the threat to your Thanksgiving morning this year is damp and overcast, not cold. Pack accordingly.

Seasonal outlooks describe tendencies across a whole season, not what happens on one specific Thursday. Which is why we're updating this page with the actual forecast.

The Actual Forecast (Updating November 20)

Six days out from Thanksgiving, forecast models get reliable enough to be worth acting on. We'll replace this section on Friday, November 20 with the real seven-day forecast for Thanksgiving morning at the Beaches, including the hour-by-hour outlook for the party window and whether you need a rain plan.

Check back that week. Until then, the ten-year table above is the best guide available.

What to Actually Wear

The data points at one answer: layers you can carry.

A 61 degree start that climbs to 65 by late morning is long-sleeve weather at 9 a.m. and t-shirt weather by noon. Most regulars wear a light jacket or flannel over whatever costume they've committed to, then end up with it tied around their waist. On a cold year like 2023, that jacket is not optional.

If you're running Tony's Turkey Trot first, remember the 5K waves go off around 7:30 a.m., which is the coldest part of the morning and typically several degrees below the 9 a.m. number in the table. You'll warm up a mile in. Getting to the start line is the cold part.

FAQ: Thanksgiving Weather at the Beaches

How warm is it on Thanksgiving in Jacksonville?
The ten-year average high at Atlantic Beach is 71 degrees with a low of 58. Morning temperatures at the start of Petesgiving average around 61.

Does it usually rain on Petesgiving?
Rarely. Only one of the last ten Thanksgivings saw measurable rain during the 8 a.m. to 1 p.m. window, though four had rain at some point during the day.

What was the coldest recent Petesgiving?
2023, at 49 degrees when the party started and a high of only 61.

What was the warmest?
2024 and 2020 both reached 79 degrees.

Will El Niño ruin Thanksgiving 2026?
Probably not, but it raises the odds of a cloudy, damp morning compared to a normal year. The temperature outlook is closer to normal than to cold.

For the rest of the year, our Jacksonville weather guide covers the whole calendar including hurricane season. And if the forecast holds up, our full Petesgiving guide covers everything else about the morning, and the rest of the weekend is already planned out for you.

Forty-one years in, nobody has ever cancelled for weather. The one year it poured, people just got wet.